MacroPass™: Brent Johnson On The Power Dynamics Underlying The Tariff War

Realpolitik and Statecraft backed by Financial Warfare.

This week’s installment of our popular MacroPass™ service for premium members of this Substack comes from capital manager & Dollar Milkshake Theory developer Brent Johnson, whom I just released an interview with yesterday.

In his analysis, “The Donald & The Damage Done”, Brent expounds on the dynamics at the heart of the current tariff tempest.

It is all about power — who has it, who does not, and what happens when the world’s largest economy decides to stop pretending otherwise.

If you want to understand what comes next — the risks, the ruptures, the extraordinary unintended consequences — then read Brent’s full post below.

As a reminder, MacroPass™ is a weekly rotating selection of premium analysis from many of the big thinkers interviewed on Thoughtful Money.

To-date that list of contributors includes experts like Lacy Hunt (Hoisington), Stephanie Pomboy (Macro Mavens), Danielle DiMartino Booth (QI Research), Tom McClellan, Michael Howell (Capital Wars), Darius Dale (42 Macro), Doomberg, Ted Oakley (Oxbow Advisors), Kevin Muir (The Macro Tourist), Alf Peccatiello (The Macro Compass), Lance Lambert (ResiClub), Ed Yardini (Yardini Research), David Hay (Haymaker), Melody Wright (M3_Melody), David Stockman (Contra Corner), David Brady (FIPEST Report), John Rubino, Adam Kobeissi (The Kobeissi Letter), Sven Henrich (Northman Trader), Jeff Clark (The Gold Advisor), Charles Hugh Smith, Steven Bavaria (Inside the Income Factory®), Chris Whalen (The Institutional Risk Analyst), Felix Zulauf, Jesse Felder (The Felder Report), Brent Johnson (Macro Alchemist) and Anna Wong (Bloomberg Economics).

Recent MacroPass™ reports in this series include:

• Lacy Hunt on his latest quarterly outlook

• David Hay on the potential upside of unloved energy stocks

• Anna Wong on the expected impact of the 'Liberation Day' tariffs

• David Stockman on just how out-of-control the federal deficit is

• Kevin Muir on 'The Bear Case' for markets

• Doomberg On the USA's fiscal outlook

• Michael Kantrowitz' on uncharacteristic economic green shoots

If you’re already a premium subscriber to this Substack, just continue below to access Brent’s full post.

But if you’re not (yet), read the start of it below and consider upgrading to premium and access the full version, as well as all past and future MacroPass™ content.

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The Donald & The Damage Done

“Realpolitik is the art of the possible—but it often ignores the cost of the probable.” — Anonymous diplomat, paraphrasing Bismarck’s legacy in a modern context

Santiago Capital

Apr 17

Executive Summary

History rarely gives advance notice that it is laying down a marker.

Empires do not typically hold press conferences when they change the rules.

And Superpowers do not typically send warnings before they weaponize the system they built.

And yet — America is telling the world exactly what is coming.

This is not the chaos of decline. This is not the flailing of a fading empire.

This is the world’s dominant power consolidating its control — unapologetically, aggressively, and with the full weight of its economic engine behind it.

And the playbook is not subtle.

The Trump Administration has thrown out the ivory tower frameworks of globalization, free trade, and rules-based cooperation — and replaced them with something far older, simpler, and more ruthless:

Realpolitik and Statecraft backed by Financial Warfare.

Tariffs are not policy details — they are pressure points. Supply chains are not economic abstractions — they are leverage.

And foreign governments and multinational CEOs are not partners — they are counterparties in a zero-sum contest for control.

Access to the American market — the largest, wealthiest, and most consumption-driven in human history — is no longer free.

It will come with a price.

But power moves like this do not come without consequences. Global capital is shifting.

Markets are trembling.

Foreign holders of U.S. assets — lulled for decades by predictability and privilege — are discovering that what the U.S. giveth, the U.S. can taketh away.

This is not about trade policy. And it is not about tariffs.

It is about power — who has it, who does not, and what happens when the world’s largest economy decides to stop pretending otherwise.

If you want to understand what comes next — the risks, the ruptures, the extraordinary unintended consequences — you will need to keep reading.

Because the damage that has already been done?

That is just the beginning…