MacroPass™: Jesse Felder On The Vulnerability Of Today's Stock Prices

Will all the "hot money" decide to make a rush for the exit?

This week’s installment of our popular MacroPass™ service for premium members of this Substack comes from macro & market analyst Jesse Felder whom I just interviewed on Thoughtful Money yesterday.

The video featured several key charts which persuade Jesse that 2025 will likely be much more disappointing year for investors than the past two have been.

In the report below, he provides a number of additional charts that show the momentum of the market’s momentum factor could be in the process of reversing to the downside. If so, it could see “a ton of hot money try to make a dash for the exit all at once”.

As a reminder, MacroPass™ is a weekly rotating selection of premium analysis from many of the big thinkers interviewed on Thoughtful Money.

To-date that list of contributors includes experts like Lacy Hunt (Hoisington), Stephanie Pomboy (Macro Mavens), Danielle DiMartino Booth (QI Research), Tom McClellan, Michael Howell (Capital Wars), Darius Dale (42 Macro), Doomberg, Ted Oakley (Oxbow Advisors), Kevin Muir (The Macro Tourist), Alf Peccatiello (The Macro Compass), Lance Lambert (ResiClub), Ed Yardini (Yardini Research), David Hay (Haymaker), Melody Wright (M3_Melody), David Stockman (Contra Corner), David Brady (FIPEST Report), John Rubino, Adam Kobeissi (The Kobeissi Letter), Sven Henrich (Northman Trader), Jeff Clark (The Gold Advisor), Charles Hugh Smith, Steven Bavaria (Inside the Income Factory®), Chris Whalen (The Institutional Risk Analyst), Felix Zulauf, Jesse Felder (The Felder Report) and Brent Johnson (Macro Alchemist).

Recent MacroPass™ reports in this series include:

• More on Felix Zulauf's outlook for 2025

• Brent Johnson on the Yen carry trade

• David Hay's top investment rankings

• Ted Oakley on his latest market outlook

• Steven Bavaria on income investing

• Charles Hugh Smith on returning to a gold-backed currency

• Chris Whalen on the health of the banking industry

• Jeff Clark on the promising outlook for junior mining stocks

• David Stockman on Bitcoin's threat to fiat currency

• Darius Dale on the market's transition from 'Goldilocks' towards Deflation

• The Kobeissi Letter on tech stock weakness & recession fears

• Melody Wright on fast-worsening housing data

If you’re already a premium subscriber to this Substack, just continue below to access Jesse’s full suite of charts.

And if you’re not (yet), read the start of it below and consider upgrading to premium and access the full version, as well as all past and future MacroPass™ content.

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When All That Hot Money Makes A Rush For The Exit

Jesse Felder, Dec 2025

After briefly pulling back from its post-election move higher, the 10-year treasury yield rose right back up to downtrend resistance this week. Increasingly, the move this year is looking like another consolidation pattern similar to the other ones we have seen since rates bottomed in 2020. And a breakout from the current pattern would likely lead to another test of the 5% level.

Of course, this is not at all what the stock market has priced in. In fact, you could argue that stocks have fully discounted just the opposite outcome with current valuations implying real interest rates should be closer to zero than their current level well above 2%. As such, a breakout in interest rates has the potential to be a very bearish catalyst for stock prices.

Turning to the S&P 500, it did reverse lower this week after completing a new weekly DeMark Sequential sell signal (13) the week prior. The lower trend line of its bearish wedge pattern (confirmed by a non-confirmation in momentum) now sits just below so it won’t take much more of a selloff to see it breakdown.