MacroPass™: Lance Lambert's Latest ResiClub PRO 'State Of US Housing' Report

Updated home price analysis spanning over 800 metros and 3,000 counties

This week’s installment of our popular MacroPass™ service for premium members of this Substack comes from housing analyst Lance Lambert whom I interviewed on Thoughtful Money on Sunday.

Lance is kindly sharing his latest ResiClub PRO analysis of the US housing market, which shows signs of softening in national home price growth that goes beyond normal seasonality.

Most of the softness is concentrated in housing markets around the Gulf and in the Mountain West, where active inventory has risen the most. While weakening, the charts Lance shows below suggest that national year-over-year home price appreciation will stay in the low single-digits through (at least) the first half of 2025.

After that?…

As a reminder, MacroPass™ is a weekly rotating selection of premium analysis from many of the big thinkers interviewed on Thoughtful Money.

To-date that list of contributors includes experts like Lacy Hunt (Hoisington), Stephanie Pomboy (Macro Mavens), Danielle DiMartino Booth (QI Research), Tom McClellan, Michael Howell (Capital Wars), Darius Dale (42 Macro), Doomberg, Ted Oakley (Oxbow Advisors), Kevin Muir (The Macro Tourist), Alf Peccatiello (The Macro Compass), Lance Lambert (ResiClub), Ed Yardini (Yardini Research), David Hay (Haymaker), Melody Wright (M3_Melody), David Stockman (Contra Corner), David Brady (FIPEST Report), John Rubino, Adam Kobeissi (The Kobeissi Letter), Sven Henrich (Northman Trader), Jeff Clark (The Gold Advisor), Charles Hugh Smith, Steven Bavaria (Inside the Income Factory®), Chris Whalen (The Institutional Risk Analyst), Felix Zulauf, Jesse Felder (The Felder Report) and Brent Johnson (Macro Alchemist).

Recent MacroPass™ reports in this series include:

• Jesse Felder on the vulnerability of today's stock prices

• More on Felix Zulauf's outlook for 2025

• Brent Johnson on the Yen carry trade

• David Hay's top investment rankings

• Ted Oakley on his latest market outlook

• Steven Bavaria on income investing

• Charles Hugh Smith on returning to a gold-backed currency

• Chris Whalen on the health of the banking industry

• Jeff Clark on the promising outlook for junior mining stocks

• David Stockman on Bitcoin's threat to fiat currency

• Darius Dale on the market's transition from 'Goldilocks' towards Deflation

If you’re already a premium subscriber to this Substack, just continue below to access Lance’s full ResiClub PRO chart series.

But if you’re not (yet), read the start of it below and consider upgrading to premium and access the full version, as well as all past and future MacroPass™ content.

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Updated home price analysis spanning over 800 metros and 3,000 counties

December 2024

Lance Lambert, ResiClub PRO

This fall, we're seeing some softening in national home price growth that goes a little beyond normal seasonality. According to the Zillow Home Value Index, U.S. home prices fell -0.4% month-over-month between October 2024 and November 2024. From a historical perspective, that [-0.4%] is a fairly soft print for this time of year, which is near the end of the seasonally soft reporting window. Historically speaking, October to November has averaged a -0.2% month-over-month decrease since 2000.

As you’ll see in today’s home price update, most of the softness is concentrated in housing markets around the Gulf and in the Mountain West, where active inventory has risen the most.

In the coming months, the housing market will slowly move from the seasonally soft window into its seasonally strongest window. The table below helps you to see that seasonal effect.

NOTE: As shown in the table above, it isn’t unusual for home prices to experience a slight month-over-month decline during this seasonal period. However, regional declines of -1.0% or more at this time of year often indicate a local housing market undergoing a correction.

Click here for an interactive version of the month-over-month metro map below

As month-over-month U.S. home price growth slightly softens, so is year-over-year growth—but national home prices are still rising.

According to the Zillow Home Value Index, U.S. home prices are up +2.3% year-over-year between November 2023 and November 2024. Back in March 2024, that year-over-year national home price growth rate was +4.6%.

It’s likely that national year-over-year home price appreciation